Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to decline 12.9% year-on-year in 2026.

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IDC forecasts a 12.9% YoY decline in worldwide smartphone shipments in 2026, dropping to 1.12 billion units — the lowest annual volume in over a decade. The primary driver is a worsening memory supply chain crisis that is pushing up component costs and average selling prices (ASP projected to rise 14% to $523). Low-end Android vendors and markets with high concentrations of budget devices (Middle East & Africa down 20.6%) will be hit hardest. Apple and Samsung are expected to weather the crisis better and potentially gain market share. The sub-$100 smartphone segment (171 million devices) is forecast to become permanently uneconomical. A modest recovery of 2% is expected in 2027, with a stronger 5.2% rebound in 2028.

Worldwide Smartphone Market to Decline 13% in 2026, Marking the Largest Drop Ever Due to the Memory Shortage Crisis, according to IDC

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