A new study published in Nature Energy estimates fusion power's experience rate — the cost decline per doubling of capacity — at just 2% to 8%, far below the 8–20% assumed in most energy modeling studies. Researchers at ETH Zurich evaluated fusion plants on unit size, design complexity, and customization needs, finding near-unanimous agreement that fusion is extraordinarily complex. This suggests fusion electricity could remain expensive for a long time, raising questions about whether current public and private investment levels (over $3 billion in 2024–2025) are the best use of decarbonization funds. Some experts caution that historical extrapolation has been wrong before — solar was once predicted to stay expensive — but the uncertainty cuts both ways.
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