Where Are All The Data Centers?

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A detailed investigative piece questioning whether hyperscalers — particularly Microsoft — are actually delivering on their claimed data center buildout numbers. The author examines publicly announced Microsoft data center projects (Fairwater Wisconsin, Fairwater Atlanta, North Carolina campuses, and others) and finds that nearly none have been completed as claimed. Microsoft's CEO stated the company added roughly 4GW of capacity in two years, but on-the-ground evidence suggests only a few hundred megawatts are actually operational. The piece also challenges NVIDIA's Blackwell GPU shipment figures, arguing that millions of GPUs may be sitting in warehouses rather than deployed in operational data centers. The author draws parallels to previous financial bubbles (FTX/crypto) where confident public statements masked underlying dysfunction, and concludes that the AI data center buildout is being systematically misrepresented to investors and the public.

50m read timeFrom wheresyoured.at
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Table of contents
Defining “Built” and “Operational”Is Microsoft Misleading Us About Its Data Center Capacity?None of Microsoft’s Announced Data Center Capacity Since 2024 Has Been CompletedNo, Really, Where Are All The Data Centers?I Do Not Believe That More Than One Million Blackwell GPUs Are Actually In Operation — Meaning That Two Million GPUs Are Sitting In WarehousesData Center Capacity Isn’t Turning On At The Rate We Think, And It’s Choking The AI IndustryIt Is Very Unlikely That Gigawatts of Data Center Capacity Are Coming Online Every QuarterIf Data Centers Aren’t Getting Built, Everything About The AI Bubble BreaksThat $800 Billion In Capex Is Yet To Truly Enter DepreciationThe Slow Pace of Data Center Development Is Lethal To Oracle, OpenAI, and AnthropicWhat If Only A Gigawatt Of Capacity Is Coming Online Every Year? Every Data Center Takes 18-24 Months+ To BuildThe Data Center Construction Crisis Is Only Beginning
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