Thousands of elderly twins assure me that my kids will be alright

A parent reflects on Bryan Caplan's book 'Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids', which argues that parenting choices have almost no long-term influence on children's outcomes in Western middle-class families. The evidence comes primarily from twin and adoption studies showing that genetics and randomness dominate over nurture. The author wrestles with accepting this conclusion, explores its methodological limits (sampling biases, the 'exceptional parenting' edge case, historical generalizability), and ultimately lands on a balanced stance: continuing to engage meaningfully with his kids not because it will shape their future, but because it's enjoyable and the science isn't conclusive enough to abandon effort entirely.