The Singularity will Occur on a Tuesday
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A mathematical analysis fits hyperbolic models to five AI progress metrics (MMLU scores, tokens per dollar, release intervals, arXiv papers on emergence, and Copilot code share) to predict a "singularity date" of July 2034. The analysis reveals that only one metric—arXiv papers about AI emergence—shows genuine hyperbolic
•12m read time• From campedersen.com
Table of contents
The DataWhy HyperbolicThe FitThe DateThe CountdownSensitivityWhat t s t_s t s Actually MeansThe Social SingularityCaveatsConclusionSort: