The Singularity will Occur on a Tuesday

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A mathematical analysis fits hyperbolic models to five AI progress metrics (MMLU scores, tokens per dollar, release intervals, arXiv papers on emergence, and Copilot code share) to predict a "singularity date" of July 2034. The analysis reveals that only one metric—arXiv papers about AI emergence—shows genuine hyperbolic

12m read time From campedersen.com
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Table of contents
The DataWhy HyperbolicThe FitThe DateThe CountdownSensitivityWhat t s t_s t s ​ Actually MeansThe Social SingularityCaveatsConclusion

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