I've been a computer programmer all-told for 43 years. That's more than half the entire history of electronic programmable computers. In that time, I've seen a lot of things change. But I've also seen some things stay pretty much exactly the same. I've lived through several cycles of technology that, at the time, was hailed…

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Drawing on 43 years of programming experience, this perspective argues that AI coding assistants won't replace developers, just as previous technologies like Visual Basic, no-code platforms, and 4GLs didn't. The core challenge of programming remains translating ambiguous human thinking into precise computational logic, not just writing syntax. Historical patterns show new tools increase both programs and programmers (Jevons Paradox). Unlike reliable past tools, LLMs often slow teams down and produce unreliable code. The author predicts hyper-scale LLMs may not be economically viable long-term, with modest AI tools assisting rather than replacing developers.

The Future of Software Development is Software Developers

Agreed, writing code was never the bottleneck

It will perhaps increase developer count, because there will be tons of people, who think they can code, because they made some demo page work with vibe coding and companies will end up searching even more desperately for actual engineers who know what they’re doing.
No-skill “programmers” would in one bad scenario be the default and poison a lot of progress, making smart leaders search even more intensively for the skilled ones.
We already see this in other industries. Some masters of their craft have become really rare, because too many think tools replace them, when in fact these masters are rare and highly sought after.