The AI bubble is 17 times the size of the dot-com frenzy - and four times subprime, this analyst argues

MacroStrategy Partnership argues AI represents a bubble 17 times larger than the dot-com era and 4 times bigger than the 2008 housing crisis, based on Wicksellian economic theory measuring capital misallocation from artificially low interest rates. The analysis claims large language models have hit scaling limits, citing ChatGPT-5's $5 billion cost with minimal improvement over ChatGPT-4, low task completion rates at companies (1.5-34%), and declining AI adoption among large enterprises. The firm predicts this will trigger a deflationary recession similar to the early 1990s S&L crisis, recommending investors shift away from AI companies toward resources, emerging markets, gold, and short-dated Treasuries.