Steve Blank Your Startup Is Probably Dead On Arrival

Startups founded more than two years ago are likely operating on obsolete assumptions. AI has fundamentally changed software development speed and cost (vibe coding tools can produce MVPs in hours), VC funding has tilted heavily toward AI (two-thirds of 2025 VC dollars), and AI agents are shifting software from interface-driven to outcome-driven products. Founders face a sunk cost trap: large engineering teams, seat-based pricing, and feature roadmaps built for a pre-AI world are now liabilities. The advice is to reassess everything — technical stack, business model, market positioning — as if starting fresh today. Defensible moats now lie in proprietary data, customer outcome knowledge, regulatory approvals, and deep domain expertise rather than proprietary code. The search for Product/Market fit is evolving into a search for AI Agent/Customer Outcome fit, and MVPs are becoming Minimum Productive Outcomes.