Silicon Valley's "Pronatalists" Killed Remote Work. Then the Strait of Hormuz Brought It Back
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A growing body of research, led by Davis et al. (2026), finds that working from home raises fertility by 0.32–0.45 children per woman and accounts for an estimated 291,000 U.S. births per year. The corporate return-to-office wave of 2025–2026 is therefore functionally anti-natalist policy. Ironically, the loudest self-described pronatalists in Silicon Valley (Musk, Andreessen) championed RTO mandates while pouring ~$800M into elite fertility tech. The 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis then forced Asian governments to mandate remote work for fuel conservation, accidentally reviving the arrangement just buried by corporate America. The piece distinguishes between the extensive margin (who becomes a parent, driven by economics) and the intensive margin (how many children existing parents have, where WFH helps most), argues hybrid work of 1–2 days captures most fertility upside, and calls out the incoherence of pronatalists who oppose both housing construction and workplace flexibility.
Table of contents
The evidenceTwo margins, two different forcesReturn-to-office as anti-natalist policy that Elon Musk lovesThe 2026 energy crisis: a cruel and clarifying testPronatalist paradoxWhat should be doneBeating Dead Horses2 Comments
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