Quantum Computers Are Coming to Break Cryptography Faster Than Anyone Expected

Algorithmic advances are accelerating the timeline for quantum computers to break widely used cryptography. Google's Quantum AI team published a March 2026 study showing elliptic-curve cryptography (used by Bitcoin and Ethereum) could be cracked by a quantum computer with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits — roughly 10x fewer than previous estimates. A separate Caltech-Berkeley-Oratomic preprint suggests Shor's algorithm could run on 10,000–20,000 atomic qubits. While no immediate threat exists, NIST has standardized post-quantum cryptographic algorithms and recommends migration by 2035. Organizations relying on elliptic-curve or RSA encryption should begin planning transitions now, as both hardware and algorithmic improvements are steadily closing the gap.