Evil Martians presents a PMF scoring model built on data from 37 devtools companies including Cursor, Supabase, Linear, and Twilio. The model uses five weighted metrics—time to first value, retention, net revenue retention, free-to-paid conversion, and organic signups—to produce a dual score separating product signal (0–7) from revenue stage (0–7). The gap between the two scores diagnoses whether a company has a product problem or a go-to-market problem. Devtools benchmarks differ significantly from generic SaaS: higher conversion rates (7%+ vs 2–4%), higher NRR (130%+ exceptional), and faster time to value. The post maps seven PMF levels from $0 ARR to $200M+, with real company examples at each stage, and introduces the PMF Compass tool on the Evil Martians homepage.
Table of contents
The Sean Ellis problemThe ideaDevtools are not generic SaaSThe datasetThe dual score: signal vs. revenueWhere are your PMF levels?Key product signalsTry the compassSort: