I’m back with the Oscars Best Picture model, albeit a little late. I had a busy holiday season, but the story of December was surprising: The Secret Agent was the favorite, followed by One Battle After Another. This was largely due to The Secret Agent’s runtime, which is right in the sweet spot for Best Picture winners. However, remember from the last two years that my model is assuming these movies have been nominated for Best Picture. The biggest barrier facing The Secret Agent is being nominated; it is a non-English language film. While the only non-English language film to win has been Parasite (2019), the nominations are rare enough that, given that the film has been nominated, having no English dialogue isn’t a barrier. The DGA and PGA nominations make me think The Secret Agent won’t be nominated…

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A predictive model analyzes the 2026 Academy Awards Best Picture race, identifying "One Battle After Another" as the frontrunner with a 15% win probability, followed by "The Secret Agent" at 10%. The model considers factors like runtime, director history, and guild nominations, revealing that previous Best Picture nominations actually hurt a director's chances rather than help. The analysis notes that non-English language films face nomination barriers despite "Parasite" proving they can win once nominated. Probabilities have been calibrated to reduce overconfidence compared to previous years' models.

Predicting Best Picture at the 2026 Academy Awards