Oil crisis? IT spending de-coupled from wider war shock

Gartner has raised its 2026 global IT spending forecast to 13.5% growth ($6.31 trillion), up from a February estimate of 10.8%, despite the IEA declaring the US/Israel/Iran war has triggered the worst energy crisis in history. The growth is almost entirely driven by hyperscaler investment in AI infrastructure and datacenter buildout. Without that spending, overall IT growth sits at 7.2%. Consumer IT is growing at only 4.1%, hurt by rising memory costs. Gartner analyst John-David Lovelock argues oil prices have little direct impact on IT budgets, though a prolonged conflict could dent business confidence. AI projects are currently in a 'trough of disillusionment,' with recovery to a productivity plateau expected around 2030.