Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets

Newly created Polymarket accounts made highly specific, well-timed bets on a US-Iran ceasefire before it was publicly announced, earning hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits. Analysis of public blockchain data via Dune shows at least 50 new wallets placed substantial 'yes' bets before Trump's Truth Social announcement, despite escalatory rhetoric suggesting no deal was imminent. The pattern mirrors previous episodes involving Venezuela and Iran-related events. The incident has reignited calls from Congress and academics to broaden insider trading laws to cover prediction markets, with even Kalshi and Polymarket acknowledging the need for regulation.