Short-term mortality fluctuations and Sweden's "dry tinder" hypothesis

Erik Bernhardsson

An exploratory data analysis of mortality statistics using the Human Mortality Database, examining whether Sweden's relatively low death rate in 2019 created a 'dry tinder' effect contributing to higher COVID-19 mortality in 2020. The analysis looks at seasonal patterns in death rates across European countries, tests for year-to-year negative correlations, and applies a regression model to assess the dry tinder hypothesis. The author finds some evidence of two-year periodicity in death rates but concludes the data does not strongly support the strict dry tinder interpretation, noting the observed negative year-to-year correlation is consistent with simple mean reversion in random noise.

Mortality statistics and Sweden's "dry tinder" effect

Mean reversion, two-year periodicity, or dry tinder?