Mortality statistics and Sweden's "dry tinder" effect

An exploratory data analysis of mortality statistics using the Human Mortality Database, examining whether Sweden's relatively low death rate in 2019 created a 'dry tinder' effect contributing to higher COVID-19 mortality in 2020. The analysis looks at seasonal patterns in death rates across European countries, tests for year-to-year negative correlations, and applies a regression model to assess the dry tinder hypothesis. The author finds some evidence of two-year periodicity in death rates but concludes the data does not strongly support the strict dry tinder interpretation, noting the observed negative year-to-year correlation is consistent with simple mean reversion in random noise.