Welcome to Import AI, a newsletter about AI research. Import AI runs on arXiv and feedback from readers. If you’d like to support this, please subscribe. Subscribe now AI progress is moving faster than even well regarded forecasters can guess:…Ajeya Cotra updates her timelines…“On Jan 14th, I made predictions about AI progress in 2026. My…

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A curated AI research newsletter covering several topics: Ajeya Cotra updates her AI capability timelines, now expecting agents to reach 100-hour task horizons by end of 2026. GovAI and Oxford researchers propose 14 metrics for measuring AI R&D automation as a precursor to recursive self-improvement. Indian researchers prototype a citywide edge-computing traffic surveillance system using YOLO, SAM3, and NVIDIA Jetson chips. German researchers build TinyIceNet, a tiny vision model for on-device satellite sea ice monitoring on FPGAs. ByteDance fine-tunes its Seed1.6 model into CUDA Agent, achieving state-of-the-art GPU kernel generation performance on KernelBench. The issue closes with a short fiction piece set in a drone-war future.

Import AI 448: AI R&D; Bytedance’s CUDA-writing agent; on-device satellite AI