Simon Willison argues that Anthropic and OpenAI have finally found product-market fit through coding agents like Claude Code and Codex. Both companies shifted enterprise pricing to API token rates in late 2025/early 2026, meaning enterprise customers now pay full API prices rather than flat-seat discounts. Willison estimates he personally consumes ~$2,180/month in API tokens for just $200 on consumer plans, illustrating the value gap. Anthropic is rumored to be approaching its first profitable quarter with $10.9B in Q2 revenue, and both labs are aggressively hiring enterprise sales staff. Stories about AI budget overruns at companies like Uber and Microsoft's cancellation of Claude Code licenses are reframed as evidence of genuine demand rather than failure. The $1.25B/month SpaceX-Anthropic compute deal hints at the scale of inference spending. April 2026 is identified as a new inflection point where revenue implications of the November 2025 agent quality leap are materializing.
1 Comment
Sort: