How To Use Prediction Market Data Like Hedge Funds (Complete Roadmap)

A walkthrough of how hedge funds extract alpha from prediction market data using a publicly available dataset of 400M+ trades from Polymarket and Kalshi. Covers three institutional methods: empirical Kelly Criterion with Monte Carlo uncertainty quantification for position sizing, calibration surface analysis across price and time dimensions to exploit longshot bias, and order flow decomposition showing makers systematically outperform takers. Includes setup instructions for accessing the open-source dataset stored as Parquet files.