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The IMF projects 3.3% global growth in 2026 despite US tariff disruptions, crediting a surge in AI and technology investment for offsetting trade headwinds. The US leads with 2.4% expected growth driven by IT spending at its highest share since the early 2000s, while Europe lags with Germany at 1.1%, France at 1.0%, and the UK at 1.3%. The IMF warns that growth now rests on a narrow base of AI-heavy sectors, creating risk if promised productivity gains fail to materialize or if investor sentiment sours on tech valuations.

Global economy shrugs off US tariff shock, tech spend helped