GitHub - FiloSottile/ecc-vs-lattices-long-bet: A long bet between Matthew Green and Filippo Valsorda on what will break first: ML-KEM-768 or X25519. You can join! Money goes to charity.

Cryptographers Matthew Green and Filippo Valsorda have placed a public long bet — settling by charitable donation — on which will break first by December 31, 2040: ML-KEM-768 (a post-quantum lattice-based KEM standardized in FIPS 203) or X25519 (the elliptic-curve Diffie-Hellman function). Green is on the lattice cryptanalysis side, Valsorda on the quantum computers side. The bet includes a main wager ($5,000 donation), a secondary wager on whether ML-KEM-768 will fall below 128-bit security ($1,000), and a moral win clause around ML-KEM-512. The wager has detailed definitions of what constitutes a break, explicit exclusions (side channels, implementation bugs, etc.), named arbiters, and is open for others to join by submitting a PR.