unknown

A framework for navigating AI hype without panic or distraction. The core method: ignore all opinions, predictions, and analysis about AI entirely, and focus exclusively on detailed field reports of actual use. When reading those reports, apply four questions of uncertainty: what new outcomes are possible, what actions can I take, what is the relative value of those outcomes to me, and what are the causal relationships? The rationale is that effective businesspeople don't predict the future — they do fast adaptation under uncertainty. Opinions are discarded because AI impacts are uneven and context-specific, the attention economy incentivizes fear-based viral content, and experimentation yields more valuable information than punditry. Practical starting point: go cold turkey on AI takes for a week, then ruthlessly apply the four questions to everything you read.