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IDC has updated its 2026 forecasts for PC and smartphone markets, now projecting steeper declines than previously anticipated due to a worsening global memory shortage. PC shipments are forecast to fall 11.3% while revenues grow 1.6% from higher ASPs; smartphones face a 12.9% unit decline. A Q4 2025/Q1 2026 pull-forward of shipments will be followed by sharp volume drops starting Q2 2026. Larger OEMs with stronger supplier relationships will gain market share at the expense of smaller vendors. Budget devices are hit hardest, with some price bands becoming economically unviable. Vendors may ship devices with reduced RAM and storage configurations. The AI PC category faces particular risk as memory reductions undermine local AI workload capabilities. Additional uncertainty comes from U.S. tariff policy. The structural shift is expected to persist well into 2027, with a meaningful rebound not anticipated until 2028.

Higher ASPs, lower unit volumes: How the memory crisis is reshaping the PC and smartphone outlook

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