As football fans, we constantly hear pundits making bold predictions. But how often do they actually hit the targets? Let’s check the track record of three popular Russian football pundits. Vadim Lukomskiy, Denis Alkhazov, and Vladimir Grabchak ...

R-bloggers

A data analyst systematically evaluated the betting predictions of three Russian football pundits on La Liga matches across 26 matchdays (259 predictions) in the 2025-2026 season. Using R and LLMs (Gemini and Claude) to parse screenshots from YouTube videos, the author compiled a dataset including predicted winners, odds, and actual outcomes. Results show that even deep domain knowledge doesn't translate to profitable betting — two of three pundits won 44% of bets, landing near a neutral balance. Interestingly, some pundits showed strong team-specific accuracy (e.g., Lukomskiy at 66.7% on Villarreal, Grabchak at 7/7 on Osasuna), while all three consistently failed on the big three clubs (Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid).

Can deep football knowledge guarantee betting success? Systematic evaluation of football pundits’ La Liga predictions