Anthropic bods say AI hasn't had much impact on jobs

Anthropic economists Maxim Massenkoff and Peter McCrory have published research finding that AI has had minimal measurable impact on employment so far, despite widespread predictions of job displacement. Their study introduces a new metric called 'observed exposure' that measures actual AI usage rather than theoretical capability. The findings show no systematic increase in unemployment for workers in AI-exposed roles since late 2022, though there is weak evidence that hiring of younger workers has slowed slightly in those occupations. The researchers expect AI-exposed jobs to grow more slowly through 2034, with older, female, more educated, and higher-paid workers most at risk — but note the current unemployment effect is statistically indistinguishable from zero.