You might expect me to follow that up with some pithy reversal, like George Box’s famous quote about models, but are estimates useful?

Denis Bolkovskis

Anthropic

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Software estimates are considered lies because software development is a rapid cycle of experiments that involves solving novel problems. Past experience is irrelevant in solving these problems. The cone of uncertainty in software development suggests that as more problems are solved, there is less uncertainty about solving future problems.

All Software Estimates are Lies

Project Planning and the Agile Enterprise

<p>There are lies, damn lies and software estimates.</p>


<p>If every new feature or app is that novel, you might be doing something wrong</p>
