AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

Drawing on Carlota Perez's model of long technology surges, this piece argues that the current AI boom is more likely the final 'late deployment' phase of the 50-year digital/ICT wave than the beginning of a new transformative surge. Three indicators support this: the structural collapse of startup funding in 2022, AI breakthroughs coming from capital-heavy incumbents rather than garage startups, and near-complete platform saturation across most digitizable sectors. AI is framed as an efficiency optimizer of the existing computing paradigm — analogous to lean production refining mass production — rather than a paradigm-shifting innovation. Evidence includes low voluntary AI adoption (only 8% pay for it), user backlash against forced AI bundling, and declining profit margins at companies like Notion. The piece contrasts the US 'race to AGI' ideology with China's pragmatic, lean, application-focused AI model, suggesting China's approach better fits a late-cycle moment.