After the Bubble

Tim Bray argues the GenAI bubble will burst and the hangover will be worse than previous tech bubbles. Two key reasons: GPUs burn out quickly under LLM training loads (1-3 year lifespan vs. conventional hardware), making post-bubble infrastructure expensive rather than a cheap legacy asset; and Big Tech is using Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) to hide massive data center debt off balance sheets, echoing 2008-era financial engineering. Bray also critiques the investor thesis that AI will replace tens of millions of knowledge workers to boost profits, questioning who will then be left to consume goods and drive the economy.