SpaceX filed confidentially for an IPO targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation for a June 2026 listing. A sum-of-the-parts analysis across seven business segments — Starlink Consumer, xAI/Grok, Starship Commercial Launch, Starlink Enterprise, Government/Defense, Falcon 9/Heavy, and Starlink Direct-to-Cell — yields a median fair value of approximately $1.25 trillion, roughly 29% below the IPO target. The gap is explained by the IPO pricing correlated upside (75th percentile across all segments) and potential conglomerate premium driven by the Starlink+Starship+xAI narrative. Key skepticism centers on xAI's $258B anchor valuation given heavy losses, Starlink's ability to scale to 50M+ subscribers, and Starship's pre-revenue option value of $170B.
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